Welcome to a brand new season of Super Rugby. This is the second year of the fourteen team version of the most exciting provincial rugby competition in the world and expect another feast of hard-hitting, hard-running entertainment. This is a World Cup year, so many players will be doing their utmost to put themselves forward for national selection.
For some reason MAIT usually loves the Super Rugby competition and has been averaging well over 70% for the last couple of seasons. For anyone familiar with the competition it will come as little surprise that the Crusaders have the higest MAIT rating going into the season. It will be interesting to see how the season develops - as part of the New Zealand national rugby plan to avoid the traditional throat constriction around the World Cup semi-finals, they are withdrawing many of their star players for the first half of the competition for a "conditioning programme" (for what it's worth, on current form their 'B' team could with the World Cup).
Last year's dilution of the Australian and the South African teams, due to the expansion of the competition with an extra team in each country, will have less of an effect this year and hopefully a closer competition. After an intensive review of all of the teams (conducted mostly with a beer in one hand), here's my season preview, roughly in order of predicted finish:
Crusaders: Historically these guys are not great starters and that will definately be the case again this year, with many of their star players out for the first half of the season. The South African leg is key for the Crusaders, who will be happy with two wins from those three games. They lost some experience in the off-season, but still have all sorts of firepower at their disposal (Dan Carter and Richie McCaw to name but two). The stars will be back in the second half of the season and they will be bringing the big stick, so if they're around the top six at that stage, look out for the Crusaders to be the dominant force yet again. Rightfully favourites.
Blues: Always difficult to beat at home, they are a good team again this year. A quite decent forward pack is ably backed up by the likes of Rokocoko, Howlett and Luke McAlister. They will be missing a lot of players for the first half of the season and there is a question mark over their depth, but an improvement over last year's eigth placed finished is highly likely.
Hurricanes: The 'Canes made the semi's in 2005 and 2006 and are perenially competitive with the likes of Umaga, Nonu and Conrad on deck. Their inexperienced forward pack, along with the rested All Blacks for the first half of the season may leave them in an awkward position late on. They're still one of the favourites, but they won't make the semi's as comfortably as last year. Depending on their early season results, they may well fight themselves as part of the dogfight for fourth towards the end of the season.
Brumbies: The holy trinity of Brumbies (and Australian) rugby, Gregan, Larkham and Mortlock, will be key to their success as always. There will be close eyes on the aging trio, Gregan especially, ahead of this year's World Cup. The health of the trio is vital, but there's still plenty of other talent out on the park despite the departure of Giteau - George Smith and Stephen Hoiles could work extremely well together as breakaways, Rathbone is always a threat, plus Julian Huxley is a handy pickup. They play a lot of their tough games at home and if they can stear clear of injury problems, the Brumbies will definately be up the pointy end towards the end of the season.
Warratahs: The 'Tahs performed strongly last year and avoided the scramble for the last finals spot, finishing seven points ahead of fourth. They open the season with a three game leg in South Africa, so their position at the end of that will go along way to deciding their fate in 2007. They have lost a lot of quality in the off season, with Mat Rogers heading back to Rugby League, Dan Vickerman out for the season (Justin Harrison is long gone as well, up in Belfast playing very successfully for my now-local Ulster side), David Lyons out for an extended period and no Wendell Sailor (which is not necessarily a bad thing). Whitaker has also moved to Ireland, but replacement Josh Valentine will do a good job filling his shoes. They will also be playing all the New Zealand sides at their full strength, so I think the Tahs might fall just short of the semi's this year.
Chiefs: The only New Zealand side that has not made a final in eleven years of Super Rugby. They have some very sleek backs, including Muliaina, Anesi, Sivivatu, Masaga and of course Byron Kelleher. They also have some good forwards this year and if they can get good ball for the backs, the Chiefs will beat some good teams this season. I strongly doubt this will be "their year", but they should be in the mix for the final semi's spot.
Bulls: The Bulls made the semi's last year before falling to the eventual champions. They have some of the serious class in the Super 14 in the form of Victor Matfield, Bakkies Botha and the lightning quick Brian Habana (that try for a well beaten South African outfit against Ireland at the end of 2006 was about the fastest I've ever seen someone move on a rugby field). They also have a serious foward pack and Springboks all over the place. The big problem for the Bulls is that they travel about as well as tropical fruit - if they can learn to play on the road they're a serious prospect for a top four finish.
Sharks: After a shocking 2005 season they actually played rugby in 2006 and missed out on the semi's by a whisker due only to points difference. They're a very balanced side without too many standout stars (John Smit at hooker, along with Bob Skinstadt and "Prince Charming" Percy Montgomery being the notable exceptions). They have some decent depth too and have a lot of early home games so expect them to be well placed at about the halfway point of the season. If they're not, Sharks fans, rip up your betting slip and just concentrate on the sideline hot tub because they're not going to storm into a finals spot late in the season.
Cheetahs: The Super 14 newcomers were a bit of a surprise last year, finishing 10th in their inaugural season. They recruited well in the off season (Marius Joubert being their biggest acquisition) and have some of the biggest, baddest and ugliest forwards in the imposing figures of CJ van der Linde and Os du Randt (watch out for Philip Burger in the outside backs as well). They have one of the best coaches in the competition in the underrated Rassie Erasmus, who will have them well prepared for every game. There are some inexperience issues, but expect the Cheetahs to push up towards mid-table this season, surprising a few teams along the way.
Western Force: They've done some good recruiting after picking up the wooden spoon in their first season last year. Matt Giteau is a seriously good pickup and although his best position is probably 12, he may well play 10 for the good of the team (his play in the halves was one of the shining points in a fairly ordinary European tour for the Wallabies at the end of 2006). The backline is very good on paper, possibly the best of the Australian teams, and if the forwards can get them the ball effectively, they might surprise a some people this year. Winning the ball is a real problem though - the tight five are nothing to brag about in terms of power and will struggle against the better scrummagers in the competition. They won't be world beaters, but will finish with more than last year's twelve points, plus will avoid the wooden spoon.
Stormers: These perennial also-rans will be also-running again this year. They have Schalk Burger, the ultimate "if he's on your team you love him, if he's on their team you hate him" kind of player, and a few other minor highlights like Breyton Paulse and Ryno Benjamin, but not enough talent to really strike fear into the hearts of opponents (especially with the loss of Marius Joubert). They're difficult and awkward, as much for themselves as for other teams, although they have a few good young prospects. A very ordinary draw in the first half of the season does them no favours, plus their tight-five are a bunch of blouses - they might pick up slightly towards the end of the season, but should still be ecstatic if they sneak into the top ten. They won't.
Highlanders: The best case for the Otago side is a small improvement on last year's disappointing ninth, but not by much. Classy forwards Anton Oliver and Carl Hayman are out on "conditioning programme" duty, leaving their scrum looking extremly vulnerable for the first half of the season. They don't have a great draw either, so a mid-table finish is about all the fans can hope for.
Reds: Ah, the Reds. I'm a Queenslander born and raised so the last few seasons have been pretty hard to watch. They were looking a bit better during the pre-season, but the loss of the iconic Chris Latham (best fullback in the world by a street, and in the running for outright best player) will be devastating. They also lost Josh Valentine, Drew Mitchell and Steven Kefu to other teams, as well as Elton Flatley to retirement. They have a new coach in Eddie Jones who, though woeful in charge of the Wallabies, had started on the right foot so far in the pre-season. Berrick Barnes and Sam Cordingly will improve this year and hopefully league defector Schifcofske settles in quickly. The forward pack are inexperienced, but monster prop Rodzilla Blake looks extremely promising, and this could be McMeniman's year also (he'll definately put some huge hits on). If they could stop haemorrhaging players to other teams, they could build a good unit. They'll surprise a few teams, but a top ten finish would be a good result for them.
Golden Lions: They were the "Cats" last year, but don't let the name change fool you - they'll still be crap. They needed to fight off a strong challenge from the Southern Spears to be the final South African side in this year's comp. They have picked up a couple of reasonable players, including Solly Thibilika from the Sharks, but lost more (most importantly captain Wikus van Heerden). Their scrum is poor and their lineout is worse. The new coach is a plus, but the wooden spoon still looms large on the horizon.
There you have it - the Crusaders will again be hard to beat and the other big Kiwi teams of the Blues and Hurricanes will be right in the mix. Another dog-fight for fourth this year, with hopefully at least one of the Aussie sides sneaking into the semi's. It doesn't look like a great year for you Sarfie fans though.
That's How I'm Seeing It
Alan McCabe.